A | 外交战线战火已经点燃！五十国联手织就一张巨大的包围网，打算把俄罗斯死死困在国际舞台之外。万万没想到，一贯带头冲锋的美国直接选择隐身。
B | 不到二十四小时，联合国安理会，中方果断出手，一记重锤直接砸碎西方的围剿布局，整个博弈局面瞬间反转！ Z 所有人都看得明白，过去但凡要发动大规模外交施压，美国永远站在最前面，招呼一众盟友集体发声。
C | 可这一回，画风彻底变了。 While Germany's producer prices observe the biggest rise since records began in 1949, the index has also shown the biggest month-on-month increase, leaping 5.3% from June to July.,"The outlook for the further development [of the economy] is currently noticeably gloomy," and marked by "a high degree of uncertainty," Germany's Finance Ministry said in its August monthly report, quoted by Reuters.,"We have something like a tsunami coming," said Florian Josef Hoffmann, former president of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce East Thuringia and author of "Occupy Economics." "It’s calm water, everything goes slowly down. For example, furniture retail has completely stopped and other things are going down, too. Everything goes slower step by step. But the disaster comes, as I told you, in autumn. And that will be very bad. I can't imagine that this economy can easily survive this really critical situation.",Germans have been experiencing some pre-existing domestic problems as the government turned down nuclear and coal plants in order to switch over to gas and renewables, he noted. However, anti-Russian sanctions which included a sweeping energy embargo "create a real huge problem for the economy because it is based on the cheap Russian gas and now it's cut down by the own will of the government," according to Hoffmann.,"They cut down the gas import [from Russia]," he explained. "So the whole strategy of the past is ruined, and that's the problem. And that makes for great uncertainty because more or less the ship runs against the ice mountain. It's more than uncertainty; I see even the crash coming along for the German economy, not only because of these sanctions, but because of the consequences of the sanctions.",Energy Crisis in EuropeEU Will Not Replace Russian Gas in Full If Nord Stream 1 Remains Shut, Expert Says19 July, 18:20 GMT,The Russo-German chill started with Berlin suspending the Nord Stream 2 project on February 22, 2022. Moscow launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine two days later, after the US, NATO and the EU defied Russia's draft security agreements envisaging ending the transatlantic military alliance's expansion and deployment in Ukraine.,In the aftermath of the operation, the US and its NATO allies have introduced several packages of sanctions. The EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030, following in Washington and London's footsteps. In April, Brussels laid out targets to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Western sanctions also complicated Gazprom's maintenance of the existing Nord Stream 1 infrastructure. The Russian company was forced to reduce shipments via the network in mid-June over delays in the repair of a Siemens-built high-pressure gas pumping turbine in Canada. Ottawa deliberately delayed the return of the turbine, which had undergone maintenance work, back to Europe, citing anti-Russian sanctions. To make matters worse, the Canadian side did not provide proper documentation for the turbine which resulted in further delays. In late July, Gazprom said that it had to stop the operation of another Siemens gas turbine engine for maintenance, which prompted western press to groundlessly claim that Russia was deliberately cutting gas supplies to Europe.,Berlin's energy policy is dictated from Washington for the detriment of the people of Germany, according to Dr. Christian Blex, an AfD lawmaker from the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia.,"The sanctions that the hypermoral German government in particular is repeatedly demanding are therefore particularly bad for our country," he said. "Any responsible government would base its actions on the well-being of its own people rather than acting as a vassal of the US.",Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says08:42 GMT,Biggest Problems Coming in Autumn, Winter,As of yet, the negative impact of sanctions is not particularly felt by ordinary Germans, according to the observers.,"At the moment we don't feel anything. Big bills are only announced and haven't yet reached the consumers," said Hoffmann. "But the announcements are that the energy prices will go up three to five fold, for many people [this will be] simply unpayable. That’s what is going to come in autumn. Ordinary people prepare by buying canned food or wood or gas stoves. What I also know is, for instance, that not only the ordinary people, but also the cities are preparing. The city of Dusseldorf is cutting down the heating of all gangways in their administration facilities. They are cutting the temperature down from 21 degrees centigrade to 19 or even 17, closing saunas and heating outside swimming pools. They are cutting down lights on public buildings.",While the people are not yet in panic, the German authorities are, according to Hoffmann.,"The government is talking about reducing the turnover tax for gas from 19% to 7% and they are trying to reduce the tax load for pensioners and other instruments to calm down the people," he noted. "But it's ridiculous what they plan when you look at the task of breaking a huge breakdown of the economy. It's only peanuts.",Meanwhile, businesses are expecting climbing power prices, and they are already thinking about how to compensate for that, according to him.,"The German economy looks to the future with serious concerns," echoed Blex. "In contrast to many citizens, business knows exactly what the energy crisis will bring. In public, however, criticism is heard only hesitantly. Fear of green politics and the media is still very great. As the suffering increases, the criticism will become louder… The biggest problems are coming up for the ordinary people with the inflation of food prices and extremely with the power costs. It will hit the poor, the low income class, those who will have to pay not 40, 50 or 60 euros per month for their power, but 200, 400 or even 500. That will make them not only hungry but upset.",WorldGerman Craftsmen Urge Chancellor Scholz to Scrap Sanctions Against Russia13:40 GMT,The AfD lawmaker expects a worsening recession with industrial production falling noticeably in Germany. He forecasts that short-time work will be reintroduced, adding that retailers are already noticing that more and more Germans are making significant savings. After all, the German national debt will continue to rise rapidly, according to him.,For his part, Hoffmann does not rule out that the people will eventually take to the streets en masse, stressing that the German government has already been preparing for this scenario.,"Our Ministry of Defense is preparing a special task force of 1900 soldiers, which have to keep peace within the country," he said. "This is an incredible decision. Our Bundeswehr is an army solely for defense against attacks from the outside. This basic rule is now broken, which means we are now in a totalitarian regime which has no respect for laws and our Constitution. They simply do what they want including censorship. And as one can see, they are preparing for a revolution.",Hoffmann cites German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as saying that the country's forces won't shoot at the people. However, the author expresses skepticism about Scholz' pledge: "It is like 'nobody wants to build a wall' in 1961 and then it was built some weeks later. So, the situation is disastrous," he concluded.。
D | 冲锋陷阵的，换成了欧洲。 欧洲拉上亚太一众伙伴，凑齐五十国阵容，高调抛出联合声明。表面上是谴责战场行动，真实目的，是想用人海战术抢夺国际舆论制高点。他们想要强行给冲突盖棺定论，堵住所有谈判通道，逼迫俄罗斯单方面妥协退让。 最耐人寻味的，就是美国的缺席。 如今美国到处起火，中东要布局，亚太不能松懈，国内政坛还纠缠不休。耗费精力牵头搞大规模多边联名，对当下的美国来说得不偿失。双边交易、利益置换，才是它更偏好的玩法。 美国打得一手如意算盘。把对抗俄罗斯的重担甩给欧洲，自己躲在幕后观望。欧洲能扛住压力，美国就坐享其成。一旦欧洲顶不住崩盘，美国再跳出来重新入局，借机漫天要价。进可攻，退可守，主动权牢牢攥在自己手心。 但欧洲，根本没有退路。 战火就在欧洲家门口燃烧。高昂的能源账单、源源不断涌入的难民、社会内部持续撕裂，所有苦果全部由欧洲吞下。美国可以远隔大洋隔岸观火，欧洲却无处可逃。
E | 这份五十国声明，本质上是欧洲的一场豪赌。对内安抚国内躁动的民意，对外摆出姿态，更是演给美国看：就算你不上，我们照样能扛住对俄前线。 光鲜的外交表演之下，藏着致命短板。欧洲能喊出慷慨激昂的口号，却拿不出足够的军备与物资。真正维持前线消耗，依旧离不开美国的鼎力支撑。一纸联合声明，改变不了战场上的分毫态势。 欧洲急于借着五十国的声势，构建非黑即白的对抗叙事，试图裹挟整个国际社会选边站队。就在这套舆论攻势达到顶峰的紧要关头，安理会会场，中方直接亮剑。 中方当场直言，冲突持续升级，人道主义灾难愈演愈烈，现状令人深感痛心忧虑。当众抛出明确信号，呼吁各方全力推动局势降温，打开和谈大门，追根溯源寻找化解危机的出路。 很多人只看到几句呼吁和平的表态，却没有读懂这一招的杀伤力。 西方企图利用联合国这个多边平台，把它改造成为地缘斗争的擂台。拉拢大批国家联名施压，回避冲突复杂的历史经纬，单纯依靠数量优势进行道德审判。一旦这种风气泛滥，多边主义将彻底名存实亡。 中方不站队、不结盟，拒绝卷入集团对抗。
F | 直接戳破西方一手编织的舆论谎言，直白告诉全世界：单方面施压换不来和平，无休止对抗只会带来更多流血牺牲，谈判桌才是唯一出路。硬生生撬开已经几乎焊死的斡旋窗口，直接摘掉五十国声明抢占的道义高地。 俄罗斯同样抓住这个机会，发动舆论反击。俄媒大肆渲染美国缺席的细节，全力放大美欧之间的裂痕。莫斯科的算盘十分清晰，刻意渲染欧洲盲目激进，反衬美国的现实理性，以此分化西方阵营，抢夺战略主动权。 必须厘清关键事实：中方安理会行动，和俄方舆论造势不存在任何私下串通。
G | 但在现实博弈当中，两者形成了奇妙的对冲效果。 中方站在多边主义道义高度，瓦解欧洲的围剿叙事。俄方不断放大美欧内部矛盾，撕开西方阵营的裂口。 双重冲击之下，这份声势浩大的五十国联合声明，瞬间失去战略支点，沦为一场轰轰烈烈的纸面狂欢。 接下来整个俄乌棋局走向，全部捏在美国的手上。 倘若美国继续撒手，任由欧洲独自硬扛对俄博弈，欧洲实力不足的短板很快暴露，将会陷入进退维谷的绝境。如果美国只是暂时蛰伏，等待有利时机再度下场，欧洲尚有调整政策的回旋余地。 无论事态如何演变，欧洲这一轮贸然冲锋，已经把自身外交缓冲空间压缩到极致。 再多国家签字的纸面文件挡不住炮火，再热闹的外交造势，也止不住前线的流血。中方在风暴中心果断出手，就是要在全世界疯狂鼓吹对抗的时候，死死守住政治解决这最后一道防线。 喧嚣终将散去，真正决定结局走向的，永远是前线真实的战场态势。返回，查看更多。
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